Bonds & fixed income · Podcast

270: Sports, Markets and Investing: What Separates Skill From Good Luck

For wealth professionals, the episode offers a process-oriented discussion of decision-making under uncertainty, using sports analogies to frame probability, payoff and repeated opportunities in portfolio management.

Streams from the publisher’s own feed. Nothing loads until you press play.21 min

Summary

By the bonds & fixed income desk

In this episode of The Bid, host Oscar Pulido talks with Ronald Van Loon, a portfolio manager in BlackRock’s Global Fixed Income Group, about how sports can serve as a lens for investing. They discuss hit rates, payoff ratios, teamwork, preparation and process in fixed income portfolio management, and why small edges can matter when applied consistently. The conversation also covers how skill and chance differ across sports and why probability and payoff should be considered together.

The episode compares decision-making in sports and investing, focusing on small margins and repeated decisions.
It examines why probability and payoff need to be considered together when trying to win big points.
It discusses teamwork and preparation as supports for decision-making across complex fixed income markets.
It presents a three-part investor framework and links basketball shot selection to expected value.

Chapters

From the publisher’s description

Time	Chapter	Length
	Introduction	2 min
	Tennis Margins Compound - How small statistical advantages can compound across repeated decisions	4 min
	Winning the Big Points - Why probability and payoff need to be considered together	3 min
	Soccer Skill vs Chance - Where skill and chance differ across tennis, soccer and basketball.	2 min
	Teamwork in Investing - How teamwork can support decision-making across complex fixed income markets	3 min
	Olympics and Process - Why preparation and continuous learning remain central to a repeatable investment process	2 min
	Basketball Expected Value - How basketball’s changing shot selection illustrates the concept of expected value	2 min
	Three-Part Investor Framework	1 min
	Closing and Next Episode	2 min

Similar items

Same topic

The Fed Holds, but the Pressure Builds	On Investing (Charles Schwab)	20 min	Oct 30
UK Budget 2026: What It Means for Gilts, Interest Rates & Equities \| Macro Moments	Franklin Templeton	18 min	Oct 29
Is Your 40% in Bonds Losing to Inflation? Aptus CIO Makes the Case for an Options-Based Approach	ETF.com	5 min	Oct 29
Mind the $2 Trillion Gap	WisdomTree	6 min	Oct 28
Quality, Liquidity, and Yield in Agency Mortgages	PIMCO	3 min	Oct 27