RIAs lose 2%-5% of AUM yearly to client withdrawals: Cerulli

RIA firms are losing 2% to 5% of assets under management annually to client withdrawals, excluding clients who leave, according to a Cerulli report cited by RIABiz. The report, authored by Cerulli director Stephen Caruso, finds lifestyle spending is a growing drain on RIA books of business.

With industry sources putting RIA assets near $10 trillion, RIABiz calculates that translates to $200 billion to $500 billion in yearly outflows. Cerulli says regular income withdrawals and one-time distributions accounted for 56% of RIA outflows in 2025. More than half of RIA clients are 50 or older, and 25% are 60 or older, per Cerulli data.

Mark Tibergien, former Moss Adams principal, told RIABiz that most RIA firms have seen only 3% to 4% organic growth, while top firms grow at 12%. 'At 4%, it is hard to keep up with normal withdrawal rates,' he said, adding that balanced portfolios are not growing at the rate of the main indices.

The findings challenge a central growth narrative for RIAs: the Great Wealth Transfer. If older clients are spending down savings rather than passing them along, the projected wave of inherited assets may be far smaller than many firms expect.

According to the Cerulli report, referrals are the most potent antidote to the drain. With decumulation outpacing organic growth for many firms, those that cannot bring in new assets face stagnation.

Tibergien's arithmetic is sobering: a firm growing at 4% while clients withdraw at a similar rate is treading water, especially when balanced portfolios lag index returns. The long bull market may have masked how much of the wealth transfer is being consumed by retirement spending.

For buyers and succession planners, the report highlights a risk: a book of business weighted toward older clients could be shrinking even before those clients leave the firm. Valuation models that assume growing AUM may need to account for decumulation.

Cerulli points to referrals as the most effective way for RIAs to replace assets being spent down by an aging client base. Expect firms to likely double down on referral programs and client events aimed at generating new business.