The Bull Market Turns Four (FvF Ep. 209)

In this episode, Carson Group's Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese mark the fourth anniversary of the bull market, noting the S&P 500's roughly 128% price gain (131% with dividends) since October 2022 and arguing the advance has come mainly from profit growth rather than multiple expansion. They then walk through what they see as the market's main stress points, including widening triple-C credit spreads against a steadier high yield market, strong Treasury auction demand, the growing share of hyperscaler bond issuance in net Treasury borrowing, and AI compute contracts that begin billing in 2027 to 2029. The episode closes with the Russell 2000's lag versus the S&P 500, the dollar moving above

1. The hosts say earnings drove the rally: of the roughly 128% price gain, about 85 percentage points came from profit growth, including roughly 40 from margin expansion, versus 33 from multiple expansion.
2. Forward P/E has fallen from about 22x to roughly 19.5x this year as Treasury yields climbed, which the hosts describe as a drag offset by profit growth.
3. Triple-C spreads are near 900 basis points while the broader high yield market and loans are holding up, which they read as an interest rate problem rather than a broad credit problem.
4. Hyperscaler bond issuance has grown from about 1% to 2% of net new Treasury borrowing to roughly 14% recently, and AI compute contracts begin billing in 2027 to 2029.