Diesel is Spiking. The Market Has the AI Losers Wrong | Are You Betting Too Big?
For wealth professionals, it offers a discussion of concentration and bet sizing alongside a look at how diesel and grocery prices feed into inflation. The material focuses on how managers think about these issues rather than on specific recommendations.
Summary
By the markets & outlook deskThis episode of Excess Returns Weekly Wrap revisits interviews with Michael Baron, Eric Pachman and Kris Abdelmessih. It connects overlooked AI opportunities and concentrated portfolios with diesel costs and inflation, and with position-sizing lessons from the Kelly criterion.
- Michael Baron discusses why some apparent AI losers may have valuable data advantages and how his firm manages investments as they become large positions.
- Eric Pachman traces diesel costs into consumer inflation and shares a grocery-price study that challenged his own assumptions.
- Kris Abdelmessih explains why surviving long enough to benefit from an edge depends on how much you bet.
- The episode also covers fractional Kelly, uncertainty about the true size of an edge, and applying position-sizing lessons to investing, gambling and insurance decisions.
Chapters
From the publisher’s description| Time | Chapter | Length |
|---|---|---|
| Introduction and Michael Baron on overlooked AI winners | 9 min | |
| Eric Pachman on diesel costs and inflation | 8 min | |
| Kris Abdelmessih on good odds and bad bet sizing | 5 min | |
| Michael Baron on concentration and letting winners run | 6 min | |
| Eric Pachman tests grocery prices against CPI | 5 min | |
| Your household's inflation versus the headline number | 4 min | |
| Kris Abdelmessih on why investors use fractional Kelly | 6 min | |
| Being honest about your edge and applying Kelly in real life | 5 min |
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