Baird's Tech Strategist Says This Isn't 2000. So Why Is He Warning Against Buying the Dip?

Ted Mortonson, a technology strategist at Baird, talks with Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau about why his institutional clients sold into the semiconductor rally and have not bought back, even though he still describes AI as the most powerful technology cycle of his career. He draws on dot-com-era lessons about taking profits, preserving capital and waiting for selling to settle, and works through what he looks for in AI beneficiaries, including free cash flow, engineering resources and manufacturing scale. The conversation also covers financing the data center buildout, whether the market can absorb large AI IPOs, circular financing, and his views on Apple, Meta, Nvidia, Tesla and Space

1. Mortonson says his institutional clients sold into the semiconductor rally and are not yet ready to buy back.
2. He contrasts the current AI cycle with the dot-com bust, arguing the long-term opportunity is stronger this time.
3. He highlights free cash flow, engineering resources and manufacturing scale as traits of AI beneficiaries, and points to optical networking, advanced chip architectures and high-bandwidth memory.
4. He discusses how large IPOs and circular financing could create risks for existing shareholders, and shares concerns about Apple alongside views on Meta, Tesla and SpaceX.