At a glance
- The 15-case history covers the last 10 midterm elections and the last five presidential elections.
- The 15% average one-year return after divided elections compares with the market's 10.2% long-term annual return with dividends reinvested and with 11.5% in the year after elections that produced single-party control, the column said.
- For advisors fielding client calls after Democrats' midterm gains, the column supplies a historical counterweight for clients who want to reposition on the result rather than on earnings.
One-year returns were positive in 14 of 15 cases after elections that left no party in control of the White House and Congress, averaging 15%, a WealthManagement.com column reported. The 15-case history covers the last 10 midterm elections and the last five presidential elections.
The 15% average one-year return after divided elections compares with the market's 10.2% long-term annual return with dividends reinvested and with 11.5% in the year after elections that produced single-party control, the column said. As Private Wealth Daily previously reported, the sweep sent the 10-year Treasury yield down 4.7 bps.
For advisors fielding client calls after Democrats' midterm gains, the column supplies a historical counterweight for clients who want to reposition on the result rather than on earnings.
Fed policy, earnings and the AI trade may matter more to markets than the newly tilted House and Senate, the column said. It predicts Congress will curtail the executive branch's tariff authority.
Divided government beat both alternatives
Average annual return, %, after divided-government elections vs. single-party control and the long-term market average
- Highlighted
- Others
Show as table
| Label | Value |
|---|---|
| Divided government (highlighted) | 15% |
| Single-party control | 11.5% |
| Long-term market average | 10.2% |
Reported by The Advisor's Note desk from WealthManagement.com. Published . Corrections