Self-storage development pipelines shift to suburbs in 20 metros

Twenty metros that put most of the past decade's self-storage construction inside city limits now have mostly suburban projects in their pipelines, according to a StorageCafe analysis of Yardi Matrix data first reported by IREI. Fifteen other metros are moving the other way, with pipelines tilting back toward urban sites.

Population growth divides the two groups. Metros shifting suburban recorded median growth of 13% between 2014 and 2024, against 5% for those shifting urban, per the analysis. Austin shows the split inside a single metro: its suburban communities grew 59% over the decade while the principal city grew 14%, and urban sites are 24% of upcoming self-storage supply there, down from 51% of historical deliveries.

For sponsors and the allocators underwriting them, the split changes what a pipeline means. A metro adding suburban projects is a land-assembly and site-work exercise at the metro's edge; one tilting urban is an entitlement and infill exercise. That suggests suburban submarket population counts, not MSA totals, are the figure to underwrite supply against.

Orlando's urban share is projected to fall from 57% of the past decade's deliveries to 39% of upcoming supply, and Lakeland's from 61% to 19%, according to the study. Sarasota is following a similar pattern. Cleveland moves the other way, with its urban share rising from 19% of historical deliveries.

As Private Real Estate Daily previously reported, StorageCafe's October analysis found 42 of the top 100 metros put at least half of the past decade's self-storage development inside city limits.