Tech Is Rolling Over. Yields Are Falling. Why Jim Paulsen is Watching the Walmart Recession Signal

In this episode of The Jim Paulsen Show on Excess Returns, Jim Paulsen lays out a cautious equity outlook that stops short of a recession or bear-market call. He walks through the charts behind his view, including tightening financial conditions, the lagged effects of yields, oil and the dollar, seasonality, technology spending and market leadership. He also discusses retail, housing, employment and Walmart's relative performance, and sketches a possible path through a correction.

1. Paulsen sees correction risk as financial conditions tighten, but he does not call for a recession or the end of the bull market.
2. He argues that rising yields, oil prices and a firmer dollar can affect the economy with a lag and may weaken the November-to-April seasonal advantage.
3. He examines technology spending relative to GDP, AI adoption and pricing, and complacency after two decades of tech leadership.
4. He points to retail, housing, employment and Walmart's relative performance, with his seven lagging sectors, the "Modest Seven," central to his case.