StoneX' Vincent Deluard: The S&P Is Hiding a Bear Market | #655
It offers a macro strategist's dissenting view on equities and a set of cross-asset calls, framed around the gap between index-level performance and what he describes as a hidden bear market. Useful for advisors wanting to hear how a bearish macro case is constructed, without any recommendation implied.
Summary
By the markets & outlook deskVincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX, joins the show to explain why he has turned bearish on stocks after years of holding a bullish view. The episode covers his use of tax collections as an economic gauge, his argument that the world is effectively paying $150 to $200 for oil, and his comparison of Europe to Japan in 2012. It closes with his case for the yen, the Korean won and UK stocks.
- Deluard says he is turning bearish on stocks after years of being a bull.
- He cites tax collections as his preferred gauge of the economy.
- He argues the world is really paying $150 to $200 for oil, discussed under the heading 'shadow oil and inflation'.
- He compares Europe to Japan in 2012, 'just uglier', and makes the case for owning the yen, Korean won and UK stocks.
Chapters
From the publisher’s description| Time | Chapter | Length |
|---|---|---|
| Bull Market or Bear Market? | 3 min | |
| The Bifurcated Economy | 4 min | |
| Turning Bearish on Stocks | 4 min | |
| Midterm Politics and the Policy Put | 4 min | |
| Shadow Oil and Inflation | 8 min | |
| Shadow VIX and Market Churn | 4 min | |
| Europe Looking Like Japan | 12 min | |
| Bond Yields and Global Rotation | 7 min | |
| Brazil, Korea, and France | 15 min |
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