Prediction Markets vs. Political Reality: Henrietta Treyz on the Midterm Elections

PGIM's Daleep Singh talks with Henrietta Treyz, co-founder and director of economic policy at Veda Partners, about the U.S. midterm elections and what market participants can read from polls and prediction markets. The discussion covers the market and economic chain reaction the episode says could follow the midterms, including tariffs, the politics of data centers and AI, budget negotiations and the fiscal outlook, foreign policy and a possible debt ceiling impasse in 2027.

1. The episode looks at how market participants can read election signals beyond conventional wisdom, from polls to prediction markets.
2. It discusses potential market implications of the midterms for the pace of the U.S. data center buildout.
3. It covers the politics of tariffs and foreign policy risk, plus budget negotiations and the fiscal outlook.
4. It examines the possibility of a debt ceiling impasse in 2027.