Market Snapshot: What’s Next for Rates and Markets? Featuring Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones

A SIFMA Market Snapshot episode in which SIFMA president and CEO Kenneth E. Bentsen, Jr. and director of research Heidi Learner speak with Mona Mahajan of Edward Jones about the outlook for Federal Reserve policy ahead of the September FOMC meeting. The conversation covers the labor market and inflation data the Fed is weighing, the rise in long-term Treasury yields and term premium, and, per the episode description, AI investment, corporate issuance, equity market opportunities and the risks investors should watch.

1. Mahajan says the Fed is watching the dual mandate, inflation and inflation expectations, and that Edward Jones' call is a bias to remain on hold unless an outsized inflation reading arrives.
2. She notes unemployment held steady at 4.1% with wage gains below inflation, and says there is no sign of a wage-price spiral.
3. Learner says fed fund futures imply roughly a 62% probability of a 25 basis point hike, up from about 35% in mid-August.
4. Mahajan attributes part of the rise in long-term rates to a higher term premium, which she says has risen but remains below 12-month highs, alongside growth and earnings factors.