Liquidity Fueled This Bull Market. The Cycle Is Turning | Why Michael Howell is Watching Bonds
For wealth professionals, the episode offers a liquidity-cycle framework for thinking about cross-asset positioning, refinancing stress and the case for government bonds as liquidity tightens. It also connects AI investment, debt maturity walls and China's debt problems to broader portfolio questions.
Summary
By the bonds & fixed income deskMichael Howell of CrossBorder Capital joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to discuss slowing global liquidity and why he thinks it could challenge stocks even as AI earnings remain strong. He walks through his liquidity cycle, collateral and repo markets, and a growing competition for funding as real-world investment rises while existing debt needs refinancing. He also discusses government bonds, the AI buildout, China's debt burden and implications for gold and Bitcoin.
- Howell measures global liquidity as the financial system's capacity to provide funding.
- He describes a strong real economy competing with financial markets for money.
- He outlines four phases of the liquidity cycle and a shift from speculation toward turbulence.
- He discusses the debt maturity wall, refinancing stress and why he is watching bonds as liquidity tightens.
Chapters
From the publisher’s description| Time | Chapter | Length |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Howell on slowing global liquidity | 4 min | |
| Why Main Street competes with Wall Street for funding | 5 min | |
| The four phases of the liquidity cycle | 5 min | |
| Repo markets, collateral, and the role of central banks | 4 min | |
| Private credit creation and Fed-Treasury coordination | 4 min | |
| Asset allocation through the liquidity cycle | 7 min | |
| AI cyclicality and comparisons with past booms | 4 min | |
| The debt maturity wall and refinancing demands | 8 min | |
| Debt-to-liquidity stress and financial system fragility | 5 min | |
| Refinancing risks and Europe's fiscal pressures | 4 min | |
| Treasury yields, nominal growth, and China's economy | 5 min | |
| The outlook for 2027, China's debt, and gold | 5 min |
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Videos and podcasts are embedded from their publishers. Selections and summaries are editorial and are not investment advice.