AI Stocks Cracked. Margins Could Be Peaking. So Why Is a Liquidity Expert Watching the Debt Wall?

In this Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler assemble a set of short conversations on AI spending, liquidity and portfolio concentration. Michael Howell discusses why the pace of global liquidity growth matters for stocks and why a borrower's ability to refinance can matter more than the interest rate, while Bob Elliott puts a number on the revenue AI labs would need to earn to justify the buildout. Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson look at the same bet from the chipmakers' side, and John Davi and Aahan Menon connect it to portfolio construction and household budgets.

1. Michael Howell explains why the pace of global liquidity growth matters for stocks, and why a borrower's ability to refinance can matter more than the interest rate.
2. Bob Elliott puts a figure on the revenue AI labs would need to justify new data center capacity.
3. Intel beat earnings expectations and its shares still fell, which Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson use to discuss the growth investors had already paid for and why chip earnings can peak even as data center spending rises.
4. John Davi describes pairing equal stock weights with sector controls, and Aahan Menon discusses how a lower saving rate has helped consumption outgrow wages.