Willis Re sees abundant credit reinsurance capacity for Jan. 1

Cedents renewing credit, surety and political risk reinsurance on Jan. 1 will have abundant capacity and the upper hand in negotiations, Willis Re said in its October market view. Reinsurers will still be selective about which cedents get the best terms. Lloyd's direct credit insurance premium grew about a quarter in 2025 to around £1.6 billion, the broker said, citing Lloyd's Aggregate Accounts.

Reinsurers enter renewals with record capital and strong returns, and softening property-catastrophe pricing has put that capital to work in specialty lines. Lloyd's removed premium income limits on credit and financial guarantee business in July 2025. Atradius writes through Syndicate 1864 and Coface through Syndicate 2546. Credeq's Syndicate 1998 has in-principle approval to write credit insurance, including European trade credit, from Jan. 1. Convex and Atrium have added credit and political risk capacity, and Oak Re adds reinsurance capacity as a Lloyd's platform. Most new entrants follow rather than lead, Willis Re said: they deepen panels, but established reinsurers still set the price.

For allocators, the capital loosened by property-catastrophe softening is also bidding for credit and surety quota shares, with documentation, not headline rate, as the dividing line. Willis Re expects proportional ceding commissions to be broadly stable to modestly higher for clean, well-documented portfolios; documentation will decide who gets the strongest terms. Programs with severity losses or concentrations in data centers, Brazil or stressed sovereigns should expect closer scrutiny.

Atradius's UK claims data showed August claims 8% higher than a year earlier and financial-sector claims up 30% so far this year, Willis Re said. Trade credit remains profitable, with loss ratios returning toward their long-term average after record lows during the COVID-19 years. The broker expects reinsurers to focus on data center exposure, large-loss history including fraud in receivables finance, stressed sovereign concentrations, and portfolios positioned for rising insolvencies in construction, chemicals, retail and transport.

Basel 3.1 takes effect for UK banks on Jan. 1, 2027. Credit insurance remains eligible as unfunded credit protection. Willis Re said the detail of that treatment will shape bank demand and the terms reinsurers are asked to support.

Willis Re named Conduit cofounder Eckert as chief executive in September, as Private Wealth Daily previously reported.