At a glance
- Trepp's Nov. 12 report covers 182 whole loans across 201 loan pieces, with 27.49% of the balance carrying a current debt yield below 6% and more than half below 8%.
- For a mezzanine or preferred-equity investor, the 27.49% below a 6% debt yield is the addressable pool; the $804.7 million, 18.2% of the maturing balance, is the check required across those 68 loans.
- The cohort has $1.66 billion, 37.62% of the balance, in special servicing, while $4.26 billion, or 96.41%, is classified performing; the two figures are separate cuts, not a split.
Private-label CMBS loans totaling $4.42 billion reach hard maturity in November, and Trepp's refinancing test leaves $804.7 million of cash to be found across 68 of the 182 whole loans in the cohort.
Trepp's Nov. 12 report covers 182 whole loans across 201 loan pieces, with 27.49% of the balance carrying a current debt yield below 6% and more than half below 8%.
For a mezzanine or preferred-equity investor, the 27.49% below a 6% debt yield is the addressable pool; the $804.7 million, 18.2% of the maturing balance, is the check required across those 68 loans. Trepp sized a new loan on each property using current net cash flow, a 1.35x debt-service coverage ratio and the Oct. 23 Trepp-i all-in rate for the property type, which ranged from 6.44% to 7.11%; at those rates, a loan needs a debt yield of roughly 8.7% to 10.9% to refinance at its current balance.
The cohort has $1.66 billion, 37.62% of the balance, in special servicing, while $4.26 billion, or 96.41%, is classified performing; the two figures are separate cuts, not a split. The overall CMBS special servicing rate sits at 11.74%, as Private Wealth Daily previously reported, so November's stack is more than three times the broader pool. Non-performing loans total $158.6 million across six loan pieces on four properties; a California mall accounts for $145 million of it, with the remaining $13.6 million spread across a New York office condo, a Detroit mixed-use property and a Charlotte, N.C., multifamily property.
Hospitality, retail and office hold 73.8% of the balance
Hospitality is the largest block at $1.16 billion, or 26.24%, followed by retail at $1.13 billion and office at $970.9 million. Hospitality carries the weakest debt-yield profile, with 79.31% of its balance below 6%, though none of its maturing debt is currently delinquent. Retail shows more immediate payment stress, at 12.83% delinquent and 37.99% in special servicing. Mixed-use has the highest share in special servicing, 67.56%, on 12.76% of the maturity balance.
Across the cohort, 68.9% of the balance cannot refinance at its current size, compared with 3.59% classified non-performing. That makes November mostly a cash-flow problem, not a default problem: the collateral is largely paying, but the property income supports a smaller loan. Trepp ran interest-only loans as interest-only, amortized the rest over 30 years and did not net one loan's surplus against another's shortfall, so the $804.7 million is a gross figure.
Reported by the Real estate debt desk from Trepp. Published . Corrections