Treasury yields rise 57 bps in 2026, still below 1962 average

The 10-year Treasury yield has risen 57 basis points in 2026 to 4.75%, still below its roughly 5.80% average since 1962, according to an Insurance AUM Journal analysis published Nov. 3.

The 2-year Treasury yield climbed about 87 basis points this year to 4.34%, against a 4.95% average since 1976. The analysis draws on Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data as of Aug. 31. It attributes the move across the curve to concerns about the U.S. fiscal position and Middle East tensions. Broader fixed income returns have turned negative year to date, depending on duration and security selection, and the analysis says long-run averages are context, not a forecast.

For a general account, the number that decides how much of a rate move reaches surplus is the starting yield on the book, since coupon income is what offsets falling prices. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index began 2022 with a yield to worst of 1.75%, against a 6.17% average since its 1976 inception. That thin yield could not offset the price declines as rates climbed. Higher yields today provide substantially more income to help offset potential price pressure, the analysis says.

The Fed lifted its target range from 0.25% to 5.25% between March 2022 and July 2023. Over those 18 months the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index lost 8.27% cumulatively, or 5.90% annualized. It fell 13.01% in calendar 2022, its worst year on record.

For a general-account manager, the measurable question is how far the book's own yield to worst has risen alongside the 57 basis points added to the 10-year this year. The income that yield throws off, measured against the portfolio's duration, is the cushion the analysis describes and the figure a repeat of 2022 would test.