At a glance
- The underlying risk has not repriced lower, Swiss Re's US reinsurance chief Monica Ningen said.
- Monica Ningen, CEO of US property and casualty reinsurance at Swiss Re, told Insurance Business America that capital can enter the market quickly and tip the balance between supply and demand, while the loss potential being transferred does not shift at the same speed.
- For cat bond and ILS investors, the rate cuts without a matching fall in expected loss mean a narrower spread for the same risk.
US commercial property rates fell 10% in the third quarter, the second consecutive double-digit decline, according to Marsh's Global Insurance Market Index.
The underlying risk has not repriced lower, Swiss Re's US reinsurance chief Monica Ningen said.
Monica Ningen, CEO of US property and casualty reinsurance at Swiss Re, told Insurance Business America that capital can enter the market quickly and tip the balance between supply and demand, while the loss potential being transferred does not shift at the same speed.
"Given the lack of US hurricanes this year, some people forget that the risk hasn't changed," she said.
"The technical price of risk hasn't changed for the better necessarily."
For cat bond and ILS investors, the rate cuts without a matching fall in expected loss mean a narrower spread for the same risk.
If reinsurance and retrocession pricing follows primary property lower at the January renewals, compensation for wind and quake exposure shrinks while the technical price of that risk has not moved in investors' favor.
Catastrophe-driven programs averaged year-over-year reductions of 13%, and Marsh said it won improved terms on its own renewals, including catastrophe deductible caps and higher limits.
The drop followed a 13% decline in the second quarter.
One hurricane in a 10-storm season
The National Hurricane Center's Oct. 28 season summary counts 10 named Atlantic storms, only one of which became a hurricane.
Isaias peaked at major hurricane strength, weakened, and made landfall near Destin, Florida, on Oct. 9 as a Category 2 storm, the first US hurricane landfall since Milton in October 2024.
Moody's RMS Event Response puts US private-market insured losses from Isaias at $2.5 billion to $4.5 billion.
One of ten named storms became a hurricane
Named Atlantic storms in the 2026 season, of which one reached hurricane strength
- 1 in 10 Became a hurricane
- 9 in 10 the rest
Show as table
| Part | Out of 10 |
|---|---|
| Became a hurricane | 1 |
| The rest | 9 |
Ningen described the broader property and casualty market as a collection of microcycles, with conditions varying by geography and loss experience.
"We have the capital, we have the capacity, we do and will write more business when the economics are attractive, but those decisions are really made client by client and treaty by treaty," she said.
Gallagher Re counted about $92 billion in nine-month insured catastrophe losses, 29% below the 2016-2025 average, and put dedicated reinsurance capital at a record $688 billion into the January renewals.
The Atlantic season ends Nov. 30, and the January renewals will show whether reinsurance pricing falls as far as primary property rates did in the third quarter.
Given the lack of US hurricanes this year, some people forget that the risk hasn't changed.Monica Ningen, CEO of US property and casualty reinsurance at Swiss Re
Reported by the Cat bonds & reinsurance desk from Insurance Business America, Marsh Global Insurance Market Index, Moody's RMS Event Response and Gallagher Re. Published . Corrections