Steward CEO Jim Gold says RIA deal volume may run five times reported

Steward CEO Jim Gold says RIA deal volume runs as much as five times the reported count, though his firm's own 12-month mix implies about 1.7 times.

At 1.7 times, the market is about 70% larger than the visible one, by Gold's estimate: for every 10 deals on a list, roughly seven more are missing. The missing deals, by his account, are advisor-to-advisor book sales and internal succession.

The comparable sales a principal can name are the announced deals. Modern Wealth's acquisition of 4thGEN involved a $330 million California practice; Elevation Point took a minority stake in a $750 million former UBS team; Osaic added a $576 million team from Stifel Independent Advisors. A succession book priced off those reflects the announced end of the market, not the end where most books change hands.

Private Wealth Daily's 30-day reporting covers 12 activity types, led by 693 announced deals, 598 closed deals and 576 advisor moves.

None of those categories is internal succession or an advisor-to-advisor book sale. Breakaways, at 77, run against 576 advisor moves and 448 team liftouts in the same window.

The announced deals in the past week run from a $330 million practice to a $1 billion team. RBC Wealth Management hired UBS's Nepa/Susco group in Pittsburgh, five people overseeing more than $1 billion; Pinnacle brought over a $700 million Truist team in Naples; and Lido co-CEO Stern has floated cross-border deals for the $42.5 billion RIA, naming the Middle East, Europe, Asia and Mexico City.

If Steward's 1.7 times holds, those deals are a selected slice of a much larger population, and the typical RIA transaction is far smaller than $330 million. That is an inference from Gold's multiple rather than a measured figure, but it follows from the small book sales and internal handovers Gold says are missing.

Capital is arranged for the visible end: Mariner Wealth Advisors is seeking a $150 million term loan add-on that lifts its first-lien term loan B to $1.3 billion, Mercer Advisors refinanced $1.9 billion of private debt, and Beacon Pointe closed a $1.2 billion raise. The two-advisor book sale has none of that behind it.

The SEC's 2027 exam priorities put newly registered RIAs, consolidators and firms that changed business models on the review list, with fee conflicts and product fit among the topics. A principal who buys two or three books in a year likely fits those categories: a new registration, a changed model, a different fee schedule. That makes the record of fee and product-fit decisions part of doing the deal rather than paperwork after it.

Whether the 1.7 times holds beyond Steward's own book is the open question. The evidence for it is one firm's mix and its chief executive's estimate of the ceiling.