Oncor expects 20% jump in $47.5B capital plan

Oncor, majority-owned by Sempra, expects to raise its five-year base capital plan of $47.5 billion by 20%, about $9.5 billion, in its upcoming annual update, CEO Allen Nye said Thursday on Sempra's third-quarter earnings call. The increase reflects "continued strong customer and load growth from a variety of sectors, all over our system," Nye said in remarks first reported by Utility Dive.

Sempra CEO Jeffrey Martin said Oncor, which has more than 14 million customers in Texas, set a new system peak of 33 GW, 6% above last year's record. Data centers are "obviously the lion's share" of load growth, with a "significant amount of non-data center growth" alongside, Martin said.

A 20% increase on the $47.5 billion base implies about $57 billion of five-year capital at Oncor. For an allocator comparing regulated Texas grid investment with contracted data-center infrastructure, the two regimes matter: Texas rate recovery must keep pace with the load growth behind the plan, while Sempra's California utilities carry unresolved wildfire-liability risk.

Sempra's California units, San Diego Gas & Electric and Southern California Gas Co., face credit pressure from unresolved state wildfire-liability policy. Fitch Ratings called the legislature's failure to pass a liability bill a "significant adverse credit development" in September, and Martin said downgrades would "constrain future utility service." Sempra's third-quarter SEC filing said potential damages from the January 2025 Eaton fire "could materially reduce or exhaust the Wildfire Fund."