Nearly $250 billion of multifamily loans mature through 2028

Nearly $250 billion of US multifamily loans mature through 2028, according to a Yardi Matrix bulletin reported by IREI. About $230 billion is secured by market-rate apartments and roughly $20 billion by fully affordable properties.

About 8% of loans in Yardi Matrix's database, which tracks $1.4 trillion of multifamily debt, carry debt-service coverage ratios of 0.6 or less alongside high loan-to-value ratios. At 0.6, property income covers 60 cents of every dollar owed. Vintage separates the book more sharply. More than a quarter of the $52.5 billion of variable-rate loans originated from 2020 through 2022 are backed by properties with estimated DSCRs of 0.8 or less, a looser test applied to a narrower population. The 8% share counts loans, not dollars, so it does not translate into a slice of the $250 billion schedule.

For a lender or sponsor pricing a refinancing, the 0.6-or-below slice and the $230 billion maturity schedule are two different underwriting problems. The first is the pool from which extensions, preferred equity and supplemental debt get negotiated. A new bridge or mezzanine commitment against 2021-vintage floating-rate collateral is a judgment on whether the sponsor can contribute enough equity to reach a refinanceable DSCR at today's rates. Most market-rate multifamily loans still carry strong credit metrics, making the bulk of that $230 billion a rate question before it is a credit one.

Yardi's bulletin says borrowers financed at lower rates may struggle to refinance at current ones, potentially needing to contribute additional equity, negotiate loan extensions or secure supplemental financing. Clean collateral has been clearing through agency execution, according to the bulletin. As Private Real Estate Daily previously reported, Irvine Company refinanced Playa Vista Apartments with a $157 million Fannie Mae loan, replacing a $136 million PGIM loan and lifting the financing by about $21 million, per Yardi Matrix data cited by Multihousing News.