Kitces publishes Clearnomics' seven charts for Q3 client conversations

On Oct. 7, Kitces published seven charts for third-quarter 2026 client conversations, written by Clearnomics chief executive James Liu, and the set is organized around the gap between the headlines a client carries into a review meeting and the statement in front of them. The quarter those charts cover produced a 10-year Treasury yield that touched 5.30% in September, a level not seen since 2002, along with a 30-year at 5.64%, the Fed's first hike in three years, to 3.75% to 4.00%, Brent crude back above $100 a barrel, and the S&P 500's 27th record high of the year, which rewarded investors who remained invested through the headlines.

Rates take the first slot because the article calls them the quarter's biggest story, but the chart that does the most work in a meeting may be the one separating this climb from 2022's. That earlier run came largely on runaway inflation and hurt stocks and bonds together; the recent increase comes primarily from rising real, inflation-adjusted yields that reflect economic growth and heavy AI-related capital spending, with headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.4%, both driven largely by oil prices, and that mix, the piece says, gave the Fed room to raise in September. It also flags a communication change an advisor wants language ready for: new Fed chair Kevin Warsh has signaled a preference for stepping back from the central bank's traditional practice of forward guidance.

Earnings get the next pages, and breadth may matter more than the growth rate. The article puts S&P 500 earnings up about 29% year-over-year, a third consecutive quarter above 25% and well ahead of the roughly 8% historical average, and notes all 11 sectors posted gains rather than returns concentrated in a handful of mega-cap technology names. The spread between 29% and 8% is the arithmetic behind the stay-invested argument, and the question it raises is how many more quarters can clear 25%.

Commodities get their own charts. Brent crude climbed back above $100 a barrel amid continued disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, and copper rallied to all-time highs on surging demand tied to AI data centers, while anticipated public offerings from AI leaders such as OpenAI and Anthropic kept investors focused. That buildout is one advisors have already paid for on their own side of the desk: AI has become a line item in advisory technology budgets, from Schwab's $240-per-seat integration to the meters that open with Claude's advisor connectors, as this publication has reported, and the AI chart is one an advisor can speak to from experience rather than macro view.

With the midterm elections approaching in November, the deck asks whether a change in Congressional control should move anything in a portfolio. Its answer comes from a century of market history in which, the article says, markets have advanced under virtually every combination of political leadership; earnings, rates and other long-run trends, it argues, are a far stronger indicator of performance than which party holds control.

What the deck does not carry is any claim about the meeting itself. The coverage describes the charts and their contents but does not say whether the material is built for client-facing use or for advisor preparation, how firms route third-party market commentary through review, or what it takes to adapt the numbers to a particular book; its stated purpose is context rather than prediction, across rates, inflation, the Fed, earnings, commodities, the election and the AI listings.

The quietest detail in the piece may be the most durable: Warsh's signaled step back from forward guidance lands in a quarter when the yield move came from real yields rather than inflation expectations, and the article reports both without saying how clients will read either. What remains for the advisor is the meeting itself, plus two items already on the calendar: the November midterms and the anticipated listings from OpenAI and Anthropic.