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Essex raises 2026 guidance as Northern California rents climb 7.3%

The REIT is offering almost no concessions in the region, and core FFO per share rose 0.8% while net income per share fell 40.6%.

7.3%Northern California blended rent growth in Q3

At a glance

  1. The increase covers net income per diluted share, core FFO per diluted share, same-property revenue and same-property NOI, the company reported.
  2. For allocators comparing public REITs with private West Coast apartment funds, the quarter provides a benchmark: 7.3% blended rent growth in Northern California, almost no concessions in the region and about 10 days portfolio-wide.
  3. Third-quarter net income per diluted share was $1.52, down 40.6% from $2.56 a year earlier, primarily because of gains on real estate and land sales booked in 2025.

Essex Property Trust raised full-year 2026 guidance after blended rent growth in Northern California reached 7.3% in the third quarter. The San Mateo-based REIT is offering almost no concessions in the region.

The increase covers net income per diluted share, core FFO per diluted share, same-property revenue and same-property NOI, the company reported. Essex also lifted guidance in the second quarter. Revised per-share ranges were not disclosed.

For allocators comparing public REITs with private West Coast apartment funds, the quarter provides a benchmark: 7.3% blended rent growth in Northern California, almost no concessions in the region and about 10 days portfolio-wide. Chief Executive Angela Kleiman cited the affordability arithmetic. San Francisco's rent-to-median income ratio is 25.7%, against a 20-year average of just under 30%, and Oakland and San Jose are around 21%, a gap she reads as room for market rents to keep rising.

Third-quarter net income per diluted share was $1.52, down 40.6% from $2.56 a year earlier, primarily because of gains on real estate and land sales booked in 2025. Core FFO per diluted share rose 0.8% year over year and beat the midpoint of guidance by $0.01.

Kleiman attributed the Northern California result to a leasing season whose peak ran through September, with technology hiring behind it. Deliveries are expected to remain low next year, and she said technology-center innovation continues to attract investment and support job and income growth. "Just to return to pre-COVID affordability levels, rents could actually increase by over 20% with no wage growth," Kleiman said on the earnings call.

Within Northern California, Santa Clara, San Mateo and San Francisco counties outperformed while Alameda and Contra Costa lagged. Seattle, soft at the start of the year, has recovered gradually, led by the east side, where tenants are migrating from downtown and other markets.

The fourth-quarter report will show whether the extended September leasing peak carried into the fall.

San Francisco rents sit below their long-run share of income

Rent as a share of median income: Q3 2026 versus the 20-year average, San Francisco

Q3 2026

25.7%

20-year average

Just under 30%

Kleiman reads the gap as room for market rents to keep rising.

Source: Essex Property Trust Q3 2026 earnings call
Just to return to pre-COVID affordability levels, rents could actually increase by over 20% with no wage growthAngela Kleiman, chief executive of Essex Property Trust

Reported by the Sectors desk from Multifamily Dive. Published . Corrections

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