Benchmark forecasts 134 new lithium mines, $100 billion by 2050

Global lithium demand will require the equivalent of 134 new mines and more than $100 billion of investment by 2050, according to a Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecast reported by MINING.COM on Oct. 22.

The London-based research firm projects consumption rising to nearly 7 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2050 from 2.11 million tonnes this year. At an average producing capacity of 36,000 tonnes a year, the additional supply comes to one new mine every two months over 24 years. The $100 billion figure, reported as C$139.8 billion by The Northern Miner on Oct. 23, is stated before accounting for recycling.

For allocators holding lithium producers, the supply base shifts: Australia falls to 20% of mined supply in 2050 from 29%, while North America could rise to 13% from 1.7%. Australia is described as the world's largest lithium mining jurisdiction, with existing operations projected to deplete. The projection includes brownfield expansions, among them PLS's P2000, expected to begin around 2030.

"The biggest challenge is sustaining that investment through price cycles, while competing for capital with AI, defence and the wider energy transition," said Cameron Perks, Benchmark's product director for lithium. The report also cites financing constraints, lengthy permitting and competition for investment as complications for bringing supply online, particularly in Western markets seeking to reduce dependence on China.

Electric vehicles are expected to account for 76% of lithium demand in 2050, against 55% today. Batteries already make up 92% of consumption, up from about 70% in 2020.

Benchmark expects China to hold roughly a quarter of global mined production. Europe accounts for 7% of lithium demand from cell manufacturing and less than 1% of mined supply, while North America's share of cell-making demand is forecast to double to 12% by 2050.