Avison Young trims 2026 CRE sales forecast to $520 billion

Avison Young lowered its 2026 U.S. investment sales forecast to $520 billion, saying the September move in Treasury yields may not become evident in sales figures until the first quarter of 2027.

The firm's third-quarter report counted $389.3 billion of U.S. sales across multifamily, office, retail, development and industrial in the first three quarters of 2026, 17.9% more than the same period last year.

The revised full-year figure would still top 2025's $483 billion, though it stays well below the $805 billion recorded at the 2021 peak.

For allocators, the lag suggests fourth-quarter 2026 volume, and any appraisal work built on it, largely reflects contracts likely negotiated around six months earlier. Repricing tied to the September rate move would reach reported transaction data in 2027, not in the December numbers.

The report explains the delay. Negotiating and signing a contract can take a month, and securing financing can take 90 to 120 days before a deal is reported and aggregated into a quarter. Rate increases in September may therefore not become evident in the sales figures until the first quarter of next year.

Avison Young points to signed contracts as the better leading indicator. The New York City sales team signed six hard contracts since Sept. 15, on pace with its monthly average. In suburban Atlanta, the Milton Park office deal went into contract at its original negotiated price, and the Miami team closed the Blue Lagoon Shoppes retail deal for $28 million.

First-quarter 2027 sales data is the first hard read on the September move. Until then, the $520 billion forecast rests on a record of signed contracts that the firm reports has held up.